Why Geely is delaying Volvo’s public stock offering

UPDATED: 9/10/18 1:32 pm ET – adds CEO contract extension

BEIJING/PARIS — Volvo Cars and its Chinese owner Geely have postponed plans to float shares in the Swedish carmaker, blaming trade tensions and a downturn in automotive stocks.

But while Volvo’s plans for a Stockholm listing were delayed indefinitely, Britain’s Aston Martin vowed to push ahead with its own initial public offering.

“We’ve come to the conclusion that the timing is not optimal for an IPO right now,” Volvo CEO Hakan Samuelsson told Reuters by telephone on Monday, confirming a decision which was first reported by the Financial Times.

Volvo and its Chinese parent had been discussing an IPO to value the carmaker at between $16 billion and $30 billion, sources have previously said. The company said a listing was still possible in the future.

But Samuelsson said IPO prospects had dimmed with the business cycle, amid a broad-based decline in automotive shares that has dragged the Stoxx 600 Autos & Parts index 15 percent lower so far this year.

Even before the recent sell-off, however, some observers doubted the $30 billion upper end of Volvo’s target valuation.

“We had expressed our reservations concerning lofty valuation ambitions before,” Evercore ISI analyst Arndt Ellinghorst said on Monday. “Trade wars are just one red flag.”

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Washington’s escalating trade spat with Beijing and tensions with Europe have rattled automotive investors, adding volatility to market outlooks.

Volvo is less exposed than its German premium rivals to U.S.-China tariffs, however, and has said it will juggle production of its XC60 SUV to reduce their impact.

It delivered 61,480 cars in China in the first half, a fraction of BMW’s or Audi’s sales.

Geely, which paid Ford Motor Co. $1.8 billion for Volvo in 2010, also has stakes in Mercedes-Benz parent Daimler, truckmaker AB Volvo and Lotus.

China inroads 

Geely and its boss Li Shufu had concluded that Volvo should make deeper inroads into the Chinese market before listing, a person familiar with the group’s thinking told Reuters.

And Volvo, which is developing Polestar as an electrified performance brand and owns a stake in Geely stablemate Lynk & CO, has “other alternatives” to raise finance, Samuelsson said.

The IPO postponement reflects bigger concerns about “price development after a potential IPO” rather than about the initial valuation, the CEO added, citing sensitivities over the prevalence of public pension funds among Swedish investors.

“What made me nervous especially was leaving headroom for investors” amid growing market uncertainties, he said.

Swedish telecoms operator Telia drew public wrath after its shares sank from their 2000 debut. For a domestic car brand, such a setback could dent both image and sales.

Samuelsson also said that Aston Martin, as a pure luxury play, was “more like Ferrari” — whose widely envied listing came close to late boss Sergio Marchionne’s 10-billion-euro target valuation. Like Volvo, Aston Martin was once owned by Ford.

“I wish them luck with their IPO,” Samuelsson said.

Contract extension

Separately, Volvo Cars said it extended Samuelsson’s contract by two years to 2022.

“The extension provides the company with management continuity as it continues to transform itself into a global and diversified mobility service provider,” Volvo said in a statement on Monday

Samuelsson became CEO in October 2012 and he is credited with giving the automaker a “complete transformation,” the statement said. “This has established the company as a strong competitor in the premium segment with a completely new range of premium models based on in-house developed platform, powertrain, safety and infotainment technologies.”

In the statement, Samuelsson said: “I have enjoyed leading this company tremendously so far and I look forward to continuing the transformation of our company.”

Automotive News contributed to this report.

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